Is Weaponized Interdependence a Threat or a Bluff? A Critical Analysis of the Limits of Economic Statecraft in the Twenty-First

Abstract

The deepening interconnectedness of the global economy, facilitated by trade, finance, and communication technologies, has created new opportunities for both cooperation and competition among nations. As globalization has progressed, it has become evident that nations can exploit these interdependencies for strategic purposes. States have also turned to economic statecraft tools to achieve political, diplomatic, or security objectives, a practice that has been defined as the "weaponization of interdependence." This narrative highlights the fact that interdependence can become a potent instrument in the hands of a few powerful economic actors in the system. However, globalization and international markets function within a complex web of overlapping institutions that structurally prevent a few actors from controlling all others.

Through an empirical examination of how sanctions imposed by the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union have been evaded, this lecture will provide an overview of the ways in which institutional overlaps enable sanctions evasion and thereby weaken the impact of weaponizing interdependence. This analysis contributes to various academic debates, particularly concerning the relevance of states in the international system and the hierarchical relations between security challenges and other issues.

Speaker

Francesco Giumelli - University of Groningen

Bio

Dr. Francesco Giumelli is a researcher in the field of international relations, specializing in international sanctions and illicit trade. His areas of expertise include international security, European studies, international organization, foreign policy, and global governance. In his academic contributions, Dr. Giumelli has employed a variety of qualitative and quantitative methods to study the complex dynamics of international sanctions, security complexes, and trade relations. His research spans the entire policy cycle of sanctions, from studying the objectives of restrictive measures to assessing their success, evaluating their implementation, and addressing evasion. This latter research area has allowed Dr. Giumelli's expertise to also encompass various dimensions of illicit trade. His research on sanctions evasion contributes to the academic debate about informality, and he also investigates how economic crises, such as the one caused by Covid-19, lead to the expansion and radicalization of informal practices. He has published three books with ECPR Press, Routledge, and Il Mulino, along with several academic articles in journals such as International Affairs, the Journal of Common Market Studies, and Global Governance. Francesco Giumelli obtained his PhD at the Istituto Italiano di Scienze Umane at the University of Florence and has served as the deputy director of the IR department at the University of Groningen, in the Netherlands, since 2017.