Seminario

Generalized Contact Matrices Allow Integrating Socio-economic Variables into Epidemic Models

Seminario periodico del Dipartimento di Matematica
13 novembre 2024
Orario di inizio 
16:00
Polo Ferrari 1 - Via Sommarive 5, Povo (Trento)
Aula A222
Organizzato da: 
MBM Lab - Dipartimento di Matematica
Destinatari: 
Comunità universitaria
Comunità studentesca UniTrento
Partecipazione: 
Ingresso libero
Referente: 
Andrea Pugliese e Cinzia Soresina
Contatti: 
Università degli Studi Trento 38123 Povo (TN) - Staff Dipartimento di Matematica
+39 0461/281508-1625-1701-3898-1980
Speaker: 
Michele Tizzoni (University of Trento)

Abstract

Variables related to socioeconomic status (SES), including income, ethnicity, and education shape contact structures and impact the spread of infectious diseases. However, these factors are often overlooked in epidemic models, which typically stratify social contacts by age and interaction contexts. Here, we introduce and study generalized contact matrices that stratify contacts across multiple dimensions. We demonstrate a lower-bound theorem proving that disregarding additional dimensions, besides age and context, might lead to an underestimation of the basic reproductive number.

By using SES variables in both synthetic and empirical data, we illustrate how generalized contact matrices enhance epidemic models, capturing variations in behaviors such as heterogeneous levels of adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions among demographic groups. Moreover, we highlight the importance of integrating SES traits into epidemic models, as neglecting them might lead to substantial misrepresentation of epidemic outcomes and dynamics. Our research contributes to the efforts aiming at incorporating socio-economic and other dimensions into epidemic modeling.