A tale of two globalizations

Venue

Room 10, Department of Sociology and Social Research – via Verdi 26, Trento

Speaker

Prof. Giovanni Federico – University of Pisa

Abstract 

This paper compares the two periods of globalization, the ‘first’ one before World War One and the current one. Trade increased fast in both periods, but total openness increased before 1870, fluctuated widely without any trend in the next century and grew beyond the 1913 (and 1870) level only in the latest three decades. The gains from trade were higher in 2007 than in 1913. We also argue that the structural change – i.e. the rise of services relative to agriculture and manufacturing - dampened the growth of openness since 1972. All countries joined the growth in openness before 1870 and in the most recent decades, while openness stagnated in most rich countries and grew in the rest of the world in 1870-1913 and it grew in Europe and fell in less developed countries during the Golden Age. We conclude that the two globalizations differ widely and the world is now in uncharted territory.