Riprenderà ad aprile il ciclo di seminari "interni" del DEM, in programma il mercoledì (secondo il calendario di seguito), nello slot orario 13.00 - 14.30, presso la Sala Seminari al I piano: NB: il programma potrebbe subire qualche modifica.
29 novembre 2021, ore 15.30 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatore: Giovanni Cerulli (Dirigente di ricerca presso CNR-IRCrEs - Roma)
Titolo: Optimal Policy Learning: from Theroy to Practice
Following in the footsteps of the literature on empirical welfare maximization, this paper wants to contribute by stressing the policymaker perspective via a practical illustration of an optimal policy assignment problem. More specifically, by focusing on the class of threshold-based and linear-score policies, we first set up the theoretical underpinnings of the policymaker selection problem, to then offer a practical solution to this problem via an empirical illustration using the popular LaLonde (1986) training program dataset. The paper proposes an implementation protocol for the optimal solution that is straightforward to apply and easy to program with standard statistical software.
1 dicembre 2021, ore 15.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatore: Ujjal Chatterjee Kanti
Titolo: Do House Prices and Residential Investment Matter?
We investigate the relationship between house prices, residential investments and economic growth and recessions using 1975-2018 U.S. data. We find that: i) house prices have leading information about residential investments, but the reverse may not be true; ii) residential investment rather than house prices predict real GDP; iii) excluding the post 2006 data, housing variables do not forecast recession; iv) for the full sample, at shorter forecast horizons, a simple “recession state” binary variable captures recession forecasting ability of house prices or residential investments.
15 dicembre, ore 13.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatori: Roberto Gabriele, Lucio Morettini, Bianca Potì
Titolo: Does firms' growth path matter? A tentative interpretation of high growth phenomenon
The paper intends to go beyond the traditional explanation of growth as a random process and considers the firm's strategy and the diversity in growth trajectories that we observe in the market. We hypothesize that firm growth is nonlinear, discontinuous, and its costs vary over time. We use a sample of Italian medium-sized (from 50 employees) fast-growing firms. We estimated transition matrices across size classes. We employ panel data regression models to show that firms characterized by the persistence of growth and fast growth show better economic results than firms with mixed growth paths –i.e. those experimenting with positive and negative growth episodes. We also found an inefficiency relative to the profitability for higher intensities of growth. Moreover, past three years firm's growth affected Return on Assets non-linearity: the profit-growth relationship shows an inverted u-shaped relationship.
19 gennaio 2022, ore 13.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatori: Luigi Bonatti, Andrea Fracasso, Roberto Tamborini
Titolo: Challenges for monetary policy (in the EMU) after Covid-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has modified profoundly the economic structures, the economic processes, and the transmission mechanisms of policy actions. Large parts of the previous conventional wisdom appear unfit. Scholars of different persuasions today converge on the view that monetary and fiscal policies are synergic (using both allows lesser use of each) and should be coordinated, both in the stimulus phase and in the tapering phase. Each of these recommendations, however, should also be considered against the background of the specificities of the euro area, and of the ECB therein. Three main sources of risks and challenging scenarios may lay ahead, common worldwide, but prominent in the EMU: inflation, financial dominance, and tapering. Risks could be reduced by a revision of the euro area governance framework, aimed at creating conditions for a careful calibration of tapering on both the monetary and the fiscal side. These are not merely technical solutions. They require a great deal of far-sighted political will.
16 febbraio 2022, ore 13.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatore: Marco Bee, L. Tafakori, A. Pourkhanali
Titolo: Conditional heteroscedasticity models with time-varying parameters: Estimation and forecasting
We study time-varying models in the GARCH family where the parameters are functions approximated by Laguerre polynomial sequences. These expansions enable us to estimate an unknown functional form in a class of general econometric models. We investigate the asymptotic properties of these polynomials under mild conditions. Our approach is computationally feasible, although the number of polynomial coefficients can be potentially large. A significant feature of the model is the capability of dealing with unknown functional forms. Monte Carlo simulation experiments and empirical studies illustrate the practical relevance of the method.
16 marzo 2022, ore 13.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatore: Emanuele Taufer
Titolo: Non-Gaussian Graphical models
13 aprile 2022, ore 13.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatore: Gabriella Berloffa
Titolo: Potere negoziale della madre e migrazione dei figli
18 maggio 2022, ore 13.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatore: Stefano Zambelli
Titolo: I principi fondamentali della partita doppia applicati alla critica della teoria economica e a una sua ricostruzione
Le teorie economiche “mainstream” e quelle “alternative” hanno fondamenta molto precarie. Le debolezze principali sono riconducibili alla mancanza di una contabilità rigorosa. Cioè a cattive – a volte anche totalmente assenti - applicazioni dei principi fondamentali della partita doppia (ispirata da Luca Pacioli). In questo seminario si mostrerà come un impiego corretto dei principi della partita doppia rende ancora più evidenti le debolezze di molte teorie economiche e al contempo potrebbe rappresentare un punto di partenza per una loro ricostruzione. Il seminario è inteso come contributo verso il dialogo fra le diverse “anime” presenti nel nostro dipartimento.
15 giugno 2022, ore 13.00 (aula da definire)
Relatore: Erica Santini
Titolo: TBD
13 luglio 2022, ore 13.00 (Sala Seminari I piano)
Relatore: TDB
Titolo: TBD