Financial risk sources and optimal strategies in jump-diffusion frameworks

Cycle 32th Oral Defence of the Phd Thesis

March 25, 2020
Versione stampabile

Venue: Povo Zero, via Sommarive 14 (Povo) – Seminar Room “-1”
Time: 2.00 p.m.

The Oral defence will take place in telematics mode in accordance with the provisions of the Rector with email dated March 10, 2020, in order to limit the spread of the Coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic

  • Luca Prezioso - PhD in Mathematics

Abstract:
An optimal dividend problem with investment opportunities, taking into consideration a source of strategic risk is being considered, as well as the effect of market frictions on the decision process of the financial entities.
It concerns the problem of determining an optimal control of the dividend under debt constraints and investment opportunities in an economy with business cycles. It is assumed that the company is to be allowed to accept or reject investment opportunities arriving at random times with random sizes, by changing its outstanding indebtedness, which would impact its capital structure and risk profile. This work mainly focuses on the strategic risk faced by the companies; and, in particular, it focuses on the manager's problem of setting appropriate priorities to deploy the limited resources available. This component is taken into account by introducing frictions in the capital structure modification process.
The problem is formulated as a bi-dimensional singular control problem under regime switching in presence of jumps. An explicit condition is obtained in order to ensure that the value function is finite. A viscosity solution approach is used to get qualitative descriptions of the solution.
Moreover, a lending scheme for a system of interconnected banks with probabilistic constraints of failure is being considered. The problem arises from the fact that financial institutions cannot possibly carry enough capital to withstand counterparty failures or systemic risk. In such situations, the central bank or the government becomes effectively the risk manager of last resort or, in extreme  cases, the lender of last resort.
If, on the one hand, the health of the whole financial system depends on government intervention, on the other hand, guaranteeing a high probability of salvage may result in increasing the moral hazard of the banks in the financial network. A closed form solution for an optimal control problem related to interbank  lending schemes has been derived, subject to terminal probability constraints on the failure of banks which are interconnected through a financial network. The derived solution applies to real bank networks by obtaining a general solution when the aforementioned probability constraints are assumed for all the banks. We also present a direct method to compute the systemic relevance parameter for each bank within the network.
Finally, a possible computation technique for the Default Risk Charge under to regulatory risk measurement processes is being considered. We focus on the  Default Risk Charge measure as an effective alternative to the  Incremental Risk Charge one, proposing its implementation by a quasi exhaustive-heuristic algorithm to determine the minimum capital requested to a bank  facing the market risk associated to portfolios based on assets emitted by several financial agents.
While most of the banks use the Monte Carlo simulation approach and the empirical quantile to estimate this risk measure, we provide new computational approaches, exhaustive or heuristic,  currently becoming feasible, because of both new regulation and the high speed - low cost technology available nowadays.

Supervisors: Luca Di Persio